Fall AGU Session SM017: Quantifying Uncertainty in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting

July 12, 2018, from Sophie Murray

Dear Colleagues,

Abstract submission is open for the Fall AGU meeting. We’d like to bring to your attention a session cutting across the disciplines in Space Physics and Aeronomy, Session SM017 ‘Quantifying Uncertainty in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting’. If this sounds relevant to you, please consider submitting an abstract to this session. The session description is below.

The AGU meeting will be held December 10-14 2018 in Washington DC. Further details about the meeting can be found at fallmeeting.agu.org. Abstract submissions are due before 23:59 Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, August 1st.


Steve Morley (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
Gang Lu (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Sophie Murray (Trinity College Dublin)

SM017: Quantifying Uncertainty in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting

Dynamic solar outputs including flares, high-speed solar wind, and coronal mass ejections, drive responses in geospace that can have deleterious effects on technological systems. Further, upward propagation of atmospheric waves and tides produces natural variability in Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere. Many types of models are used to forecast, nowcast, or hindcast, space weather relevant quantities, but the uncertainty of these predictions is often not quantified or reported. Simulations of varying complexity are key to our understanding of the physics that drives space weather, and any simulation or forecast has uncertainty which can arise from a number of sources. These sources include uncertainties in the initial condition, uncertainties in input data, and approximations made in the construction of the model. The goal of this session is to showcase new research in ensemble modeling, probabilistic forecasting, model sensitivity studies, and other approaches to improve uncertainty quantification in space weather modeling and forecasting.