I have the pleasure of bringing your attention to the next UK-SOSS talk which will take place at 10am on 11th November 2021. Our speaker will be Prof. Sandra Chapman from the University of Warwick. The title, abstract, and zoom link are below.
Please note that due to the national silence which takes place at 11:00 on 11th November each year, the Zoom session will end strictly at 10:55.
I look forward to seeing you there.
Chris Nelson (on behalf of Marianna Korsos and Jiajia Liu)
Speaker: Prof. Sandra Chapman
Title: Space weather climate on solar cycle time-scales
Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/95338171418
Space weather and solar terrestrial physics observations are increasingly becoming a data analytics challenge and there are common approaches with other fields such as earth climate observations. Whilst focussing on specific applications, this talk aims to present generic methodology for inhomogeneous ‘real world’ data.
Over the last 5 cycles we have high-quality in-situ solar wind parameters and ground-based geomagnetic indices. Climate is the distribution of weather, and we will examine how the distributions of these parameters and indices vary within and between solar cycles. Over the last 14 cycles we have geomagnetic indices such as the aa index which are poorly resolved in amplitude but nevertheless contain information on the likelihood of occurrence of extreme space weather events, and we discuss how this can be quantified, setting the Carrington event in the context of extreme events that have occurred over the last 150 years. Each solar cycle is of unique duration, and we show how the Hilbert transform of daily sunspot number can be used to map each cycle onto a uniform time-base or ‘sun clock’. We can then use this mapping to quantify how activity in space weather relevant parameters, and in particular the likelihood of super-storms, is modulated by the solar cycle. This reveals the phases in the solar cycle where there is a clear ‘switch on’ and ‘switch off’ of activity and these are in principle predictable. Sun clocks for both the Schwabe and Hale cycles will be discussed.